Forecasting medals at the Beijing Olympics

Daniel Gross analyzes the results of two forecasts of which countries would win the most medals at the Beijing Olympic games. The first study was conducted by John Hawksworth of the Big Four accounting firm PriceWaterhouseCoopers and Andrew Bernard of Dartmouth's Tuck School of Business; the second model was constructed by economists Andrew B. Bernard and Meghan Busse of Dartmouth and the University of California at Berkeley. In his article for Slate, he notes that:

Both studies projected that while traditional powers like the United States, Russia, China, and Germany would impress in Athens, top nations would take home fewer medals than they did in 2000. "Olympic riches will be more widely distributed than before as the number of medals going to the top countries declines," Bernard and Busse wrote. PwC projected that the United States' medal haul might fall some 30 percent. Both foresaw that host nation Greece would more than double its 2000 medal count. PwC, in its boldest forecast, said India was in line to boost its medal count from one to 10.

He rates both of the models as having "a respectable performance [of predicting], but out of medal contention."

Read the article to find out what the forecasts got right and wrong.