Dealing with Iran

The Century Foundation has released a 25 page study which argues that the Bush administration should engage in a "Grand Bargain" with Tehran in order to forestall the necessity of dealing with a nuclear-armed enemy in the heart of the Muslim world. It is entitled "Dealing with Tehran: Assessing US Diplomatic Options with Iran" and it offers up a fairly comprehensive framework for engaging with what is surely the most critical foreign policy challenge currently facing our country.

As the report makes clear, however, time is of the essence in dealing with Iran: "As a result of the Bush administration’s reluctance to develop a comprehensive diplomatic approach to dealing with the Islamic Republic during the past five years, the chances that the United States and its allies will be able to reach this kind of strategic understanding with Tehran and forestall Iran’s effective nuclearization are decreasing.

Already, the quality of the package that might be negotiated has declined in some respects: three years ago, when Iran offered to negotiate a grand bargain with the United States, it probably would have been possible to conclude a deal prohibiting the enrichment of uranium within Iran; at this point, any agreement acceptable to Tehran would almost certainly have to permit operation of a closely monitored pilot facility for enrichment in Iran. More generally, the window of opportunity for achieving a diplomatic breakthrough is closing because of Iran’s progress in developing its fuel cycle capabilities, a perceived increase in Iran’s regional standing and capacity to withstandinternational pressure, and changes in the Islamic Republic’s power structure—especially the election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005.

If the administration does not move purposively and soon to pursue a broad-based strategic rapprochement with Tehran, the United States will, in relatively short order, need to begin crafting a strategic framework for coping with Iranian nuclearization and managing the negative consequences of this development." (emphasis added)

There are some interesting suggestions made in this report, and it's worth perusing if you are interested in understanding what issues are in play and just what is being risked by the current administration's failing gambit of refusing to engage with the Mullahs. There is a lot at stake, and this is a problem that needs to be engaged with immediately.

*Note that this study is published on the website of the "radical centrist" think tank The New America Foundation. While I think the study has some merit, I do not in any way endorse NAF or its policy positions.